Free tool · Simplified scenario model
Recurring revenue scenario model
See where your client base heads if new-client and churn rates stay as they are, and compare it with a scenario you choose — over the same time horizon and with the same assumptions.
Your numbers
Today
Revenue from active clients this month.
Monthly recurring revenue ÷ number of active clients.
Current path
Average new clients won each month at the moment.
Share of active clients lost each month.
Scenario to compare
Your own assumptions. The model doesn't predict that these changes will happen or what would cause them.
For example, if more enquiries converted.
For example, if fewer clients left each month.
Model output
Starting point
- Current run rate
- A$50,000/mo
- Run rate × 12
- A$600,000
- Implied active clients
- 25
| Measure | Current path | Scenario | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modelled run rate in month 24 | A$297,804/mo | A$542,654/mo | A$244,850/mo |
| Modelled revenue over months 1–24 | A$4,891,727 | A$8,070,866 | A$3,179,139 |
| Steady-state run rate the model approaches | A$400,000/mo | A$1,000,000/mo | — |
| Months until within 5% of steady state | 56 months | 97 months | — |
“Modelled revenue over months 1–24” adds up each month's modelled revenue and assumes it's collected in that month. The steady state is a level the model approaches gradually but never quite reaches, so we report the months until the client base is within 5% of it.
| Month | Current: clients | Current: revenue | Scenario: clients | Scenario: revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | A$50,000 | 25 | A$50,000 |
| 3 | 50 | A$99,919 | 66.5 | A$132,961 |
| 6 | 71.4 | A$142,718 | 104.3 | A$208,677 |
| 9 | 89.7 | A$179,413 | 138.9 | A$277,780 |
| 12 | 105.4 | A$210,874 | 170.4 | A$340,850 |
| 15 | 118.9 | A$237,848 | 199.2 | A$398,411 |
| 18 | 130.5 | A$260,975 | 225.5 | A$450,946 |
| 21 | 140.4 | A$280,803 | 249.4 | A$498,894 |
| 24 | 148.9 | A$297,804 | 271.3 | A$542,654 |
How the model works — and its limits
How it works
- Implied active clients = current monthly revenue ÷ average monthly revenue per client.
- Each month, the client base loses the churn percentage, then gains the new clients for that month.
- Modelled monthly revenue = active clients × average monthly revenue per client.
- Steady state = new clients per month ÷ monthly churn rate: the level where clients lost equal clients won. At 0% churn there is no steady state; the client base grows by the same number each month.
- Both paths start from the same client base and are shown over the same horizon.
What it leaves out
- Delivery costs, team capacity and margins — more clients can mean more cost and less profit per client.
- Price changes, seasonality, ramp-up time for new clients, payment timing and bad debt.
- The cost of winning clients and whether a scenario is achievable at all.
- It suits recurring revenue (memberships, retainers, subscriptions). One-off or project businesses need a different model, such as repeat-purchase rates.
This is a simplified illustration, not a forecast or financial advice, and it doesn't represent results Evolve will achieve. If you'd like to talk through what's realistic for your business, book a free 30-minute growth review.